A new report by National University reviews U.S. student visa records with a special focus on the F-1 visa, which allows international students to study full-time at accredited schools, colleges, language programs, or universities in the United States. Between October 2022 and May 2025, we analyzed data from over 1.4 million visa issuances, tracking where students came from and how patterns changed month by month and country by country.
Key Takeaways
- Most F-1 student visas come from a handful of countries, with China and India leading (over 77,000 and 71,000 visas, respectively, in the last 12 months)
- There is a strong seasonal pattern: June sees the highest number of visas (about 97,000), while February is the lowest (about 6,900). Most students get their visas between June and August
- Some countries are seeing rapid change—Vietnam (+2,485), Zimbabwe (+1,442), and Pakistan (+1,296) increased the most in the last year
Market Concentration and Geography
Student visa demand is dominated by a few countries and regions, with China and India accounting for two-fifths of global F-1 visas and Asia representing almost 59% of all issuances.
- The U.S. issued 77,203 F-1 visas to students from China and 71,488 to students from India in the past 12 months, making up about two-fifths of all global F-1 issuances
- Asia accounts for nearly 59% of F-1 demand
- The top five countries sent just over half of all F-1 students
Strong Seasonality
- Visa issuances peak in June, averaging 97,000, and are lowest in February at around 6,900
- The difference between the highest and lowest months is about 14 to 1
- Most students arrive between June and August
Most student visas are issued in a cluster of months, mainly June through August.
Country-level Shifts
Year-over-year changes reveal gains in student numbers from countries like Vietnam, Zimbabwe, and Pakistan, contrasted by substantial drops in India, China, and others.
- The biggest absolute increases over the last 12 months were Vietnam (+2,485), Zimbabwe (+1,442), and Pakistan (+1,296)
- The biggest declines were India (–53,074) and China (–17,926)
- By percentage, Zimbabwe (+122%) and Mongolia (+67%) had the strongest growth, while South Korea (–66%), Chile (–49%), and India (–43%) dropped sharply
F-1 Visa Historical Trend and Forecast
While post-pandemic recovery saw a spike in F-1 visa issuances, recent years point to renewed decline, with the 2025 forecast suggesting totals just above pre-pandemic levels. F-1 visa issuances peaked at 445,418 in 2023 following a post-pandemic recovery (111,387 in 2020), but slipped back to 400,737 in 2024 and are forecast at 382,000 for 2025.
- The 2025 forecast is constructed by applying recent monthly seasonality to the latest 12-month total
- Point forecast for 2025 is 382,000, with a low/high range of 350,000 to 415,000 (central estimate range: 370,000–390,000)
- Compared to pre-pandemic years (2017–2019, which averaged 373,569 annually), the 2025 forecast sits just above historic pre-COVID levels but well below the post-crisis peak of 2023
- If top sending countries regain momentum or backlog processing accelerates, volumes could again exceed 400,000, but further weakness will mean another year closer to mid-300,000s
Top and Bottom Country Lists
Detailed rankings are given to show which nations send the most and fewest students by raw counts, growth, and per-capita numbers.
Top 10 by F-1 visas:
These ten countries account for the largest absolute number of F-1 visas in the past year, led by China and India.
- China (mainland): 77,203
- India: 71,488
- Vietnam: 18,912
- Korea, South: 12,969
- Nepal: 11,019
- Japan: 8,093
- Brazil: 7,436
- France: 7,189
- Taiwan: 6,877
- Bangladesh: 6,629
Bottom 10 by F-1 visas:
- Marshall Islands: 0
- Micronesia, Federated States of: 0
- Nauru: 0
- Palau: 0
- Kiribati: 1
- Sao Tome and Principe: 1
- Gibraltar: 1
- Tuvalu: 1
- Solomon Islands: 2
- Anguilla: 3
Top 10 by absolute increase year-over-year:
These countries had the biggest raw gains in F-1 issuances versus the prior 12 months.
- Vietnam: +2,485
- Zimbabwe: +1,442
- Pakistan: +1,296
- Mongolia: +420
- Sweden: +341
- Kyrgyzstan: +276
- Kazakhstan: +269
- Great Britain and Northern Ireland: +261
- Unknown: +194
- Cambodia: +181
Bottom 10 by absolute change year-over-year:
- India: –53,074
- China (mainland): –17,926
- Korea, South: –1,802
- Chile: –1,243
- Japan: –1,204
- Nigeria: –1,185
- Iran: –1,037
- Burma: –916
- Ghana: –911
- Korea, South: –729
Top 10 by percent increase year-over-year (min 500 prior base):
Relative to the previous year, these nations recorded the fastest percentage growth in F-1 demand.
- Zimbabwe: +122.3%
- Mongolia: +66.7%
- Pakistan: +33.5%
- Cambodia: +23.1%
- Kazakhstan: +22.9%
- Kyrgyzstan: +20.1%
- Sweden: +18.9%
- Azerbaijan: +16.9%
- Vietnam: +15.1%
- Guatemala: +10.5%
Bottom 10 by percent change year-over-year (min 500 prior base):
- Korea, South: –65.5%
- Chile: –48.7%
- India: –42.6%
- Algeria: –36.2%
- Iran: –34.2%
- Egypt: –25.0%
- Burma: –24.8%
- Jordan: –23.1%
- Kuwait: –23.1%
- Malaysia: –22.5%
Top 10 by per-capita F-1 visas per 100,000 population:
Adjusting for population, these countries send the most students per 100,000 residents.
- Barbados: 57.5
- Iceland: 56.58
- Jamaica: 41.68
- Nepal: 36.73
- Belize: 36.1
- Mongolia: 30.88
- Trinidad and Tobago: 30.53
- Taiwan: 29.39
- Singapore: 28.68
- Korea, South: 25.05
Bottom 10 by per-capita F-1 visas per 100,000 population:
- Central African Republic: 0.14
- Guinea-Bissau: 0.19
- Mauritania: 0.24
- Somalia: 0.24
- Chad: 0.25
- Sudan: 0.37
- Guinea: 0.38
- Mozambique: 0.40
- Sao Tome and Principe: 0.43
Comoros: 0.44
Methodology
Data source and scope
- Source
- U.S. Department of State Monthly Nonimmigrant Visa Issuances: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-nonimmigrant-visa-issuances.html
- Scope
- Visa class: F‑1 (academic students) only
- Timeframe: October 2022 through May 2025
- Unit of analysis: Monthly F‑1 issuances by nationality
Data acquisition
- Downloaded monthly Excel workbooks covering Oct 2022 to May 2025.
- Extracted nationality‑level issuance tables and retained the F‑1 column only.
- Consolidated all months into a single panel dataset with fields:
- Year, Month
- Nationality
- F1 (monthly F‑1 issuances)
Analytical construction
- Monthly global F‑1 totals
- Summed across all nationalities by month to analyze trend and seasonality.
- Latest 12‑month vs prior 12‑month windows
- Latest 12 months: the most recent 12 complete months in the panel (rolling window).
- Prior 12 months: the 12 months immediately preceding the latest window.
- Used these windows for absolute and percent change calculations by nationality and globally.
- Country rankings
- Top and bottom 10 lists by latest 12‑month F‑1 totals.
- Top and bottom 10 by absolute YoY change.
- Top and bottom 10 by percent YoY change with a minimum 500 prior‑year base to reduce small‑denominator distortions.
Per‑capita rates
- Merged latest 12‑month F‑1 totals by nationality with external population estimates (circa 2023).
- Computed F‑1 per 100,000 population.
- Ranked top/bottom 10 per‑capita countries, noting that small populations can produce high per‑capita rates despite modest absolute counts.
Seasonality analysis
- Identified peak and trough months within the latest 12‑month window from monthly global F‑1 totals.
- Computed a peak‑to‑trough ratio to quantify seasonality intensity.
- Used month‑of‑year shares to characterize intake windows (for example June–August concentration).
Forecast methodology for 2025 F‑1
- Objective
- Provide a calendar‑year 2025 estimate for total F‑1 issuances.
- Approach
- Derived monthly seasonality shares from the latest 12‑month period (June 2024–May 2025).
- Calibrated to the current run‑rate by using the latest 12‑month F‑1 total as the baseline level.
- Applied a conservative YoY adjustment reflecting the recent headwind, generating a central estimate.
- Framed a low/high range using recent monthly volatility (adding/subtracting one trough/peak month equivalent).
- Output
- Point forecast plus a low/high band, clearly labeled as a forecast and subject to revision as new data arrives.
- Caveats
- Assumes broadly stable processing capacity, demand, and policy; does not model exogenous shocks.
- Highest uncertainty lies in summer months due to concentrated intake.
Quality assurance
- Reconciliation
- Spot‑checked that summed nationality totals matched class totals reported in monthly files when available.
- Reasonableness checks
- Validated leading countries (China, India, Vietnam, etc.), inflection points, and seasonal peaks against historical patterns.
- Outlier handling
- Excluded countries with fewer than 500 prior‑period F‑1s from percent‑change rankings to avoid unstable rates.
- Retained small countries for per‑capita analysis but interpreted results with caution.
Interpretation and limitations
- Issuances vs outcomes
- F‑1 issuances reflect consular decisions, not arrivals or enrollments; some visas may go unused.
- Nationality vs residence
- Data are keyed to nationality, not consular post or current residence; location effects are not isolated.
- Revisions
- State Department files may be updated; results reflect the versions used at the time of analysis.
- Per‑capita context
- Per‑capita rankings for micro‑states can be volatile; pair with absolute totals for policy relevance.
- Forecast uncertainty
- The 2025 estimate is directional; improvements or deterioration in top sending markets could shift outcomes materially.
